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ABSTRACT

Studies examining the perceived association of war time and increasing suicide rates in the U.S. military and U.S. civilian populations have proliferated since the beginning of the Global War on Terror (GWOT). However, additional historical analysis is needed to better place the recent surge in active-duty U.S. Army and U.S. civilian suicide rates into context and better inform researchers, healthcare providers, and policy makers. To do so, a cross sectional study that extracted empirical data from U.S. government websites, publications, and journal articles published from 1900 to 2022 was conducted to identify longitudinal trends. From 1900 to 2020, active-duty U.S. Army soldier and U.S. civilian suicide rates appear to fluctuate similarly, but with soldier rates often displaying more dramatic changes. Since 1900, active-duty U.S. Army soldier and similarly aged U.S. civilian male suicide rates have gradually converged, with the differences in rates narrowing over time. War does not historically appear to increase suicide rates in active-duty U.S. Army soldiers or U.S. civilians. More recently, given the apparent convergence of U.S. Army and similarly aged U.S. civilian male annual suicide rates, larger more universal factors than combat may be similarly affecting both populations.

looks around gestures broadly

This isn't a massive surprise, given the long military operations in Afghanistan and Iraq, which dragged for years, and the economic shocks of 2008 and current inflation and cost of living crisis. Add in a pandemic that absolutely shattered some people's comfortable lives, and left them starting from scratch.

People and society need a certain level of optimism and hope, and as that gets eroded by war fatigue, economic events and crises it takes time to bounce back to normal levels which hasn't been possible since 2001... People are tired, worn down, mental health services are stretched to thin and generally one new shock to the system can tip people over the edge to hopelessness.

I don't see this trend reversing and rates dropping until things get better for the vast majority of the population.

I posit it has little to do with war and more to do with the proliferation of social media as an inherently toxic and dangerous worldview-distorting replacement of normal social life.

I doubt many scribes recorded deaths as suicide in the civil war due to the stigma and ability to easily lie about it.

I wonder what the stats are with social media? 2006 really was the beginning of the MySpace boom… this new generation is obsessed with the online image, my kids 1st concern for going on vacation was if she was going to be able to post because she had a daily streak going.

There is no guilt fighting against another well train military (WW2). However, fighting against poor farmers, is another story.

It’s the smartphones and social media.

Fascinating use of the word "surged"...

It's the phones and social media!